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  • Writer's pictureHaru Ru

The Unraveling Love Story: Bitcoin and Copper - From Inseparable Partners to Diverging Paths

Once upon a time, during the wild Covid era from 2020 to 2022, BTC and Cu were like peas in a pod, completely inseparable. They danced together, hand in hand. But oh, how times have changed! Since 2023, that beautiful partnership has crumbled into tiny, little pieces. BTC decided to take a leap into the unknown, skyrocketing up by a whopping 80% YTD, leaving poor old Cu behind, stuck in a flat and uneventful world.


You see, the economy has been throwing a bit of a tantrum lately, and high interest rates have only added fuel to the fire. Cu, bless its heart, has been caught in the crossfire of a generally poor and lackluster economic situation. It's not having the time of its life, let me tell you that.


Meanwhile, our dear BTC has been quite the drama queen. It has been busy climbing mountains, defying the odds, and making a grand entrance back into the game. The Fed hiking cycle is expected to come to an end, the equity market is uber resilience, there was even a banking crisis (trust issue...) in the first quarter! And let's not forget the hype around AI and the recent development of BTC ETF. All of these factors have given BTC a boost, propelling it beyond the 30k mark.


Market is now expecting the FED to keep its rate-cutting scissors hidden until at least 1Q24. Meanwhile, China are still grappling with economic challenges, especially in the property market. It's a struggle, my friend, as clearly shown by those pesky domestic HY property credit spreads.


So, here's the million-dollar question: Will this rift between BTC and Cu continue? Will BTC keep strutting its stuff while Cu plays catch-up only when the economy decides to behave itself? Time will tell, my friend. Time will tell.


Regression:

Time Series:


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